Phoenix Home Prices Rise 34% in 2012

According to the Phoenix Business Journal, "After a seasonal slowdown during the scorching summer months, the metro Phoenix housing market was back on the upswing again in October with existing home prices up more than 34 percent year-over-year"

More news from the same article indicates that the median sales prices are going up. " single-family home price climbed to $157,000 in October, compared with $116,800 in October of last year, the report said. The October price gains were also notable given the fact that area’s dramatic surge in home prices earlier this year had leveled off in the four months prior, hovering around $149,000 and $150,000. It was also better than September when the median single-family home price, $150,000, was up by 27 percent year-over-year.

Click Here for the entire article

Great News for Home Buyers

For all those buyers out there that have been discouraged about the crazy bidding process and the cash investors driving the prices out of reach, good news as reported by Trulia, cash investors are beginning to lose interest in the Phoenix market.


"Shrinking inventory and decreased foreclosures may mean that big investors are losing interest in Phoenix area real estate. As more folks wanting to move into their home purchases enter the market, investors are finding increasing competition for the relatively low number of available homes for sale. These two groups of buyers generally have different approaches to the home buying process; investors seek low priced properties where they feel they have a profit margin, while home buyers are willing to pay more for properties that meet their needs for shelter. Statistics indicate that around 1500 homes were foreclosed on last month, versus the 4,000-5,000 per month we commonly saw in 2011. This drop in foreclosures means that the primary source of inexpensive real estate that investors have been purchasing is drying up, forcing them to either compete with home buyers willing to pay higher prices to secure a purchase, or to seek other markets where the real estate recovery isn’t quite as far along as it is here. Although we owe a “thank you” to investors who carried the real estate market in Phoenix during the darkest times of the past several years, the increased interest of future home owners may mean increased stability in neighborhoods hit hardest by the double whammy of the mortgage crisis and real estate bust."

Shadow inventory Myth or Fact?

The debate among housing market watchers over whether metro Phoenix has a looming shadow inventory goes on, even as foreclosures fall and home prices keep rising.

Some believe there are thousands of homes in the region on which mortgage payments haven't been made for years, but lenders haven't moved to foreclose.

The concern is those homes make up a "shadow inventory" that could be dumped on the market anytime or all at once, stalling the current recovery.

Other housing experts don't believe the area has a shadow inventory problem.

New numbers on mortgage delinquencies show the number of borrowers behind on their monthly loan payments in Arizona has fallen. Also, foreclosures starts in metro Phoenix have been slowing since January. Those who don't believe the region has a shadow inventory problem point to the declines in these key indicators as evidence.

Mike Orr, a real estate analyst at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey's School of Business, said there's no "shadow inventory" in sight. "There is still no sign of any significant new supply of homes coming onto the market, and those who anticipate a flood of bank-owned 'shadow inventory' are likely to be very disappointed," said Orr in his latest real estate report.

Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its latest data on late loan payments. Arizona's mortgage delinquency rate fell to 6.2 percent at the end of the second quarter. It was 6.5 percent at the beginning of the year.

According to the mortgage association, Arizona ranks 35th for mortgage delinquencies.
Mississippi ranks No. 1 with a delinquency rate of 11.8 percent. The national mortgage delinquency rate is 7.3 percent.

The number of new foreclosure filings, or notice of trustee sales, in Maricopa County dipped again in July. Last month, 3,219 new notices were filed, according to the Information Market and AZBidder.com. That's down from 3,711 in June and 4,328 in May.

Foreclosures, or trustee sales, have remained below 2,000 since March. A year ago, there were regularly 4,000 foreclosures or more a month in the region.

By Catherine Reagor, August 17, 2012
Original Article posted in AZ Republic AZCentral.com

Maricopa County Foreclosure Data March 2012

 I have been out looking for houses for my buyers and I keep noticing the inventory shrinking down. According to the Cromford Report, this isn't my imagination! See below for the latest stats. 

 

Default Properties: The status of a property currently within the Foreclosure process after the Bank records a Notice of Trustee Sale due to lack of borrower making payments for at least 90 days. Properties remain in this status until there is a recorded Trustee Sale or Cancellation of Trustee Sale.

• At the end of February 2012, there were 17,331 Active Default Residential Properties. This is up by 376 units from the previous month when there were 16,955 Active Default Residential Properties. This is the first month that we have seen an increase after 13th consecutive months of decreases in the number of Active Notices. FYI: The All-Time high was in December of 2009 when there were 47,606 Active Default Residential Properties.

Foreclosures: When the Bank either sells the property at the Trustee Sale (Auction) or takes the property back via Trustee's Deed.

• Foreclosures hit an All-Time, one-month high in March 2010 with 5,451. Last month, there were 2,104 Foreclosures. This was down by 449 units from November.

REO Properties: Properties that the bank owns due to lack of sale at the Trustee Sale (Auction).

• There are currently 7,909 Residential REO Properties - vs. last month when there were 8,539. This is a drop of 630 REO units in one month! In February 2011, there were 20,076 REO Properties - so we are down by 61% from then. There are approximately 1,588 REO Properties listed in the MLS, with an additional 1,425 REO Properties that are in Pending Status in the MLS. This means that there are approximately 4,896 REO Properties that are Foreclosed on, but have not yet been listed in the MLS.

Housing market recovery

 As a real estate agent that is out in the trenches trying to get her buyer homes, I have noticed the lack of inventory. It has been creeping up on us for sure and now other outlets are noticing it. Check out this graph from NAR

 

Also as noted in the great economics and business blog Money Box The above graph shows that "existing home inventories are way down from 12 months ago and basically back to where they were in mid-2005 before we were slumping. That obviously doesn't mean that we're primed for a return to full boom levels of residential investment and construction employment, but it does mean that we should be primed for a return to something like long-term average levels of residential investment and construction employment. For the past few years we've been seeing historically low levels of these things, so even a very meh 2012 would involve a lot of growth and take a meaningful bite out of joblessness."

Great news for sellers!