The debate among housing market watchers over whether metro Phoenix
has a looming shadow inventory goes on, even as foreclosures fall and
home prices keep rising.
Some believe there are thousands of homes in the region on which
mortgage payments haven't been made for years, but lenders haven't moved
to foreclose.
The concern is those homes make up a "shadow inventory" that could be
dumped on the market anytime or all at once, stalling the current
recovery.
Other housing experts don't believe the area has a shadow inventory problem.
New numbers on mortgage delinquencies show the number of borrowers
behind on their monthly loan payments in Arizona has fallen. Also,
foreclosures starts in metro Phoenix have been slowing since January.
Those who don't believe the region has a shadow inventory problem point
to the declines in these key indicators as evidence.
Mike Orr, a real estate analyst at Arizona State University's W.P.
Carey's School of Business, said there's no "shadow inventory" in sight. "There is still no sign of any significant new supply of homes coming
onto the market, and those who anticipate a flood of bank-owned 'shadow
inventory' are likely to be very disappointed," said Orr in his latest
real estate report.
Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its latest data
on late loan payments. Arizona's mortgage delinquency rate fell to 6.2
percent at the end of the second quarter. It was 6.5 percent at the
beginning of the year.
According to the mortgage association, Arizona ranks 35th for mortgage delinquencies.
Mississippi ranks No. 1 with a delinquency rate of 11.8 percent. The national mortgage delinquency rate is 7.3 percent.
The number of new foreclosure filings, or notice of trustee sales, in
Maricopa County dipped again in July. Last month, 3,219 new notices
were filed, according to the Information Market and AZBidder.com. That's
down from 3,711 in June and 4,328 in May.
Foreclosures, or trustee sales, have remained below 2,000 since
March. A year ago, there were regularly 4,000 foreclosures or more a
month in the region.
By Catherine Reagor, August 17, 2012
Original Article posted in AZ Republic AZCentral.com
